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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd