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Initially, the former US president appeared to take a firm approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious repercussions" in August in case Russia's president carried on hindering truce talks, Trump finally introduced considerable penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's initiative would effectively benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the initiative actually undermine that essential sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump persists to consider the war as a simple land disagreement, as if handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's territory will appease the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged region of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to destroy it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his deepening dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although keeping in status the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the place of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that represent a key obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a open path to the capital should he eventually opt to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would enable renewed fighting simpler for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative sets no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's plan declares: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal has Russia promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has violated similar treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a handback of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should we have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the proposal threatens a "strong unified military response" if Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars vary from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent member states from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the security presence, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from replenishing his weakened military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

Another parallel deal according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "major, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of alliance members, like the US administration, to act through arms to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not